● Official NOAA status: El Niño Advisory
Yes, we are in El Niño, and it is the strongest ever measured for this time of year.
The central Pacific is running +2.46 °C above normal on the Aug–Oct 2026 average, warmer than 1997 (+2.04 °C) and 2015 (+2.02 °C) at the same point in the year. NOAA expects it to stay strong to very strong through January–March 2027, with neutral conditions favored from April–June.
Strong La NiñaNeutralWeakModerateStrongVery strong
ONI · Aug–Oct 2026
+2.46 °C
3-month average of Niño 3.4
NOAA CPC
RONI · Aug–Oct 2026
+1.97 °C
Official strength index: strong
NOAA CPC
Weekly Niño 3.4
+3.3 °C
Week centered on Nov 4
NOAA CPC
Strong or very strong through Jan–Mar 2027
>83%
Official probability
NOAA CPC · November 2026
This El Niño vs. the giants on record
ONI (°C) by overlapping 3-month season, starting Mar–May of the onset year. The dashed line marks the "very strong" El Niño threshold (2.0 °C). Source: NOAA CPC.
Where the Pacific is running hottest
Weekly anomaly · Nov 4Niño 4+1.5 °C
Niño 3.4+3.3 °C
Niño 3+4.4 °C
Niño 1+2+5.6 °C
How far the water is above (or below) the 1991–2020 normal in each monitoring region. Source: NOAA CPC.
What does it mean for the Americas?
See impacts by region →Southern U.S. wetter winter
California, the Gulf Coast and Florida often see a wetter, cooler winter.
Northern U.S. & Canada milder winter
Warmer and drier than usual, with less snow in many areas.
Atlantic hurricanes fewer storms
Stronger upper-level winds tend to keep Atlantic seasons quieter.
Mexico, Central America & Caribbean drier
Weaker rainy seasons in the south, straining water and crops.
Typical El Niño-year tendencies, not a guaranteed forecast: other climate patterns also play a part.